Gatlinburg Real Estate Blog

Several years ago, I sold my last Smoky Mountain vacation rental property for several reasons, not the least of which was that it was becoming apparent that our community had clearly built way too many vacation rental homes. With new developments being constructed on every hillside, even our area's robust growth in the number of visitors vacationing here each year (it has much more than doubled during the 18 years that I have lived here) just couldn't keep up. Add to this the nationwide real estate market bubble that was approaching its spectacular collapse in 2008 and the fact that it was way too easy to simply walk away from a Gatlinburg area vacation home which had been purchased at too high a price. It was obvious to me that we had all of the ingredients for a perfect real estate storm. And have it we did, with many Smoky Mountain vacation homes selling for half (or occasionally even less) of their pre-bubble values. Now, I have decided to jump back in and purchase some v...

Several years ago, I sold my last Smoky Mountain vacation rental property for several reasons, not the least of which was that it was becoming apparent that our community had clearly built way too many vacation rental homes. With new developments being constructed on every hillside, even our area's robust growth in the number of visitors vacationing here each year (it has much more than doubled during the 18 years that I have lived here) just couldn't keep up. Add to this the nationwide real estate market bubble that was approaching its spectacular collapse in 2008 and the fact that it was way too easy to simply walk away from a Gatlinburg area vacation home which had been purchased at too high a price. It was obvious to me that we had all of the ingredients for a perfect real estate storm. And have it we did, with many Smoky Mountain vacation homes selling for half (or occasionally even less) of their pre-bubble values. Now, I have decided to jump back in and purchase some...

Good Foreclosure, Bad Foreclosure? Sort of like the old saying "Good cop, bad cop" our Gatlinburg area real estate market has both well behaving and misbehaving foreclosure properties. Sterling examples of this dichotomy were produced last week as we had both extremes present in new properties that we were assigned. Although they haven't been priced yet I thought I would write just a bit about these two Smoky Mountain properties, which I will call the "Beauty" and the "Beast". The "Beauty" is a 3 bedroom, 3 bath true log structure with 3 levels of elegant construction and quality finishes such as granite counter tops and other upgrades. Located between Pigeon Forge and Gatlinburg it boasts a very nice view of the National Park and Mt. LeConte. The house is NOT set on a postage stamp sized lot (nearly 1/2 an acre) and has excellent surroundings of similar upscale homes. Originally selling for over $400,000, this approximately 2200 square foo...

Good Foreclosure, Bad Foreclosure? Sort of like the old saying "Good cop, bad cop" our Gatlinburg area real estate market has both well behaving and misbehaving foreclosure properties. Sterling examples of this dichotomy were produced last week as we had both extremes present in new properties that we were assigned. Although they haven't been priced yet I thought I would write just a bit about these two Smoky Mountain properties, which I will call the "Beauty" and the "Beast". The "Beauty" is a 3 bedroom, 3 bath true log structure with 3 levels of elegant construction and quality finishes such as granite counter tops and other upgrades. Located between Pigeon Forge and Gatlinburg it boasts a very nice view of the National Park and Mt. LeConte. The house is NOT set on a postage stamp sized lot (nearly 1/2 an acre) and has excellent surroundings of similar upscale homes. Originally selling for over $400,000, this approximately 2200 square foo...

I Guess I Should be Flattered! Several of my recent posts to our Gatlinburg Real Estate blog have recently shown up on other agent's blog sites with only the most minimum alteration. While I guess that I should be flattered I'm not certain that's the way I feel. While the information we provide isn't copyrighted it isn't designed to provide information for our competitor's marketing efforts either. In fact, there are lots of topics to write about and I can't help but think that my competitors could if they tried come up with their own topics to write about. It is just a little irritating when other real estate professionals can't seem to come up with their own ideas. One of the posts that was more or less copied from my site onto a competitor's was my recent analysis of the state of our market dated Feburary 27th . After looking a little more closely at our new MLS software there appears to be a significant bug in the new system. While the market mon...

I Guess I Should be Flattered! Several of my recent posts to our Gatlinburg Real Estate blog have recently shown up on other agent's blog sites with only the most minimum alteration. While I guess that I should be flattered I'm not certain that's the way I feel. While the information we provide isn't copyrighted it isn't designed to provide information for our competitor's marketing efforts either. In fact, there are lots of topics to write about and I can't help but think that my competitors could if they tried come up with their own topics to write about. It is just a little irritating when other real estate professionals can't seem to come up with their own ideas. One of the posts that was more or less copied from my site onto a competitor's was my recent analysis of the state of our market dated Feburary 27th . After looking a little more closely at our new MLS software there appears to be a significant bug in the new system. While the market mon...

What About the Market for Lots? A prospective client contacted me today to discuss the possibility of listing her lot in Wears Valley. The property has been listed with another firm for almost 6 months without success and she was shopping real estate firms to determine which one she might use for the listing when it expires soon. While we are very active in the Wears Valley market with several sales each year I warned her that if the price wasn't reduced we would likely simply be the next real estate firm to fail to sell her property. In researching the situation there are 325 lots currently listed for sale in Wears Valley by local members of our real estate board. This number is remarkable but truly daunting in light of the fact that there have only been 45 lot sales in the Wears Valley market within the last 12 months. In a slight glimmer of good news the six month period ended March 1st, 2008 did have 27 sales so the last six months was in fact better than the previous six. Eve...

What About the Market for Lots? A prospective client contacted me today to discuss the possibility of listing her lot in Wears Valley. The property has been listed with another firm for almost 6 months without success and she was shopping real estate firms to determine which one she might use for the listing when it expires soon. While we are very active in the Wears Valley market with several sales each year I warned her that if the price wasn't reduced we would likely simply be the next real estate firm to fail to sell her property. In researching the situation there are 325 lots currently listed for sale in Wears Valley by local members of our real estate board. This number is remarkable but truly daunting in light of the fact that there have only been 45 lot sales in the Wears Valley market within the last 12 months. In a slight glimmer of good news the six month period ended March 1st, 2008 did have 27 sales so the last six months was in fact better than the previous six. Eve...

Anyone Looking to Buy a Condo? What a difference a year makes! In the period 1/01/2007 through 2/28/2007 there were ten condominium units sold in Pigeon Forge by members of our local board , The Great Smoky Mountain Association of Realtors. During the same period this year the number of condos sold by the local Realtors is exactly ONE . Because the pace is so dramatically different there are some real bargains to be found, including a remarkable condo foreclosure property we currently have listed . The dramatic decline in the pace of sales isn't limited to condos however or to Pigeon Forge for that matter. Here is the latest update to my summary of area residential sales by month. From the table you can clearly see that the recent increase in activity we've noted hasn't yet found its way to more closed residential property sales: If we may assist you in finding a terrific opportunity on any real estate property in the Sevierville, Pigeon Forge, or Gatlinburg areas please ...

Anyone Looking to Buy a Condo? What a difference a year makes! In the period 1/01/2007 through 2/28/2007 there were ten condominium units sold in Pigeon Forge by members of our local board , The Great Smoky Mountain Association of Realtors. During the same period this year the number of condos sold by the local Realtors is exactly ONE . Because the pace is so dramatically different there are some real bargains to be found, including a remarkable condo foreclosure property we currently have listed . The dramatic decline in the pace of sales isn't limited to condos however or to Pigeon Forge for that matter. Here is the latest update to my summary of area residential sales by month. From the table you can clearly see that the recent increase in activity we've noted hasn't yet found its way to more closed residential property sales: If we may assist you in finding a terrific opportunity on any real estate property in the Sevierville, Pigeon Forge, or Gatlinburg areas please ...

The State of the State (or at least Sevier County, TN) Being a little bit of a numbers guy I was on the Chess Team in High School. We didn't get any of the social attention that the football team members did. In fact the cheerleaders NEVER attended a single match, let alone cheer -and Yes, I'm still just a little bitter. In the long run however the smart guys and girls do eventually win. I'm still a numbers person and spend a lot of time analyzing our East Tennessee real estate market looking for trends and opportunities. With the latest version of our MLS software it is easier than ever for real estate brokers (even those who weren't on the Chess Team) to analyze our market. The following is a portion of our MLS system's market analysis page: Note the 907 new listings entered by our local real estate agents in the last 30 days and compare that to the 172 properties sold during the same period. You can see that the market is still creating inventory much faster t...

The State of the State (or at least Sevier County, TN) Being a little bit of a numbers guy I was on the Chess Team in High School. We didn't get any of the social attention that the football team members did. In fact the cheerleaders NEVER attended a single match, let alone cheer -and Yes, I'm still just a little bitter. In the long run however the smart guys and girls do eventually win. I'm still a numbers person and spend a lot of time analyzing our East Tennessee real estate market looking for trends and opportunities. With the latest version of our MLS software it is easier than ever for real estate brokers (even those who weren't on the Chess Team) to analyze our market. The following is a portion of our MLS system's market analysis page: Note the 907 new listings entered by our local real estate agents in the last 30 days and compare that to the 172 properties sold during the same period. You can see that the market is still creating inventory much faster t...

Positive Factors that the Media Seems to Ignore The Reasons for Optimism: During the 2005-2007 national real estate price/value correction: • Median household income grew by 5% • 4M jobs were created • 2M Legal Immigrations (4M IRS I-10 status) • U.S. Population grew by 5M people • House prices fell, so affordability is up • 3M Family formations • Retiring boomers abated sales or purchases Why an up-turn in late 2008/ early 2009 is likely & by 2010 solid: • Pent up demand from the correction will eventually work off the inventory • Population growth by another 5-7 Million people to 315 Million by 2010 • 1 Million + Legal immigrants/year • X Generation 30 Million and Y Generation 70 Million equals 100 Million growing into home buying age; youngest 20+, oldest early 30's. It's estimated that only 5% own a home now By 2010, we will likely be in a balanced market. This is the desired optimum balance. Enough inventory to meet demand; but not at the point where there are not enou...

Positive Factors that the Media Seems to Ignore The Reasons for Optimism: During the 2005-2007 national real estate price/value correction: • Median household income grew by 5% • 4M jobs were created • 2M Legal Immigrations (4M IRS I-10 status) • U.S. Population grew by 5M people • House prices fell, so affordability is up • 3M Family formations • Retiring boomers abated sales or purchases Why an up-turn in late 2008/ early 2009 is likely & by 2010 solid: • Pent up demand from the correction will eventually work off the inventory • Population growth by another 5-7 Million people to 315 Million by 2010 • 1 Million + Legal immigrants/year • X Generation 30 Million and Y Generation 70 Million equals 100 Million growing into home buying age; youngest 20+, oldest early 30's. It's estimated that only 5% own a home now By 2010, we will likely be in a balanced market. This is the desired optimum balance. Enough inventory to meet demand; but not at the point where there are not enou...

Just How Many Overnight Rentals Are There? Quick Quiz for you. No prizes for the correct answer, just bragging rights. In the Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge, and Sevierville areas how many rental cabins, chalets, & condos are there? A: 4,000 - 6,000 B: 6,000 - 8,000 C: 8,000 - 10,000 D: 10,000+ E: Nobody really knows how many The overnight rental industry in Sevier County began in the early 1960's when the first chalets and log cabins were built for visitors to the relatively newly created Great Smoky Mountain National Park. Chalets and cabins made a lot of sense and any property that had a decent view would rent well at that time. Even some that looked remarkably like army barracks were quite successful. As years went by many more cabins, chalets, and condos were built here in the Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge, and surrounding communties and the demand for this sort of real estate was always sufficient to absorb the increased supply. Nearly 50 years later we are still building, selling, ...

Just How Many Overnight Rentals Are There? Quick Quiz for you. No prizes for the correct answer, just bragging rights. In the Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge, and Sevierville areas how many rental cabins, chalets, & condos are there? A: 4,000 - 6,000 B: 6,000 - 8,000 C: 8,000 - 10,000 D: 10,000+ E: Nobody really knows how many The overnight rental industry in Sevier County began in the early 1960's when the first chalets and log cabins were built for visitors to the relatively newly created Great Smoky Mountain National Park. Chalets and cabins made a lot of sense and any property that had a decent view would rent well at that time. Even some that looked remarkably like army barracks were quite successful. As years went by many more cabins, chalets, and condos were built here in the Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge, and surrounding communties and the demand for this sort of real estate was always sufficient to absorb the increased supply. Nearly 50 years later we are still building, selling, ...

SEVIER COUNTY REAL ESTATE MARKET ANALYSIS In an environment filled with hyperbole and ever increasing tales of woe, it seems that a little counterpoint is in order. The following comments and observations represent my best effort to offer some sense of balance and perspective on the issues that are at the forefront of current news reports. The Mortgage Market The difficulties facing the mortgage market are primarily related to “sub-prime” loans, and they are the most severe in a relatively few states. More specifically, sub-prime Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs) are at the heart of the problem. It should also be noted that not all sub-prime loans were made to borrowers with poor credit. In our resort area, a substantial number of well-qualified applicants voluntarily chose sub-prime over traditional loans for a variety of reasons, including ease of underwriting. • A little over 13 percent of all mortgages are classified as sub-prime by the Mortgage Bankers Association. About 11 percen...

SEVIER COUNTY REAL ESTATE MARKET ANALYSIS In an environment filled with hyperbole and ever increasing tales of woe, it seems that a little counterpoint is in order. The following comments and observations represent my best effort to offer some sense of balance and perspective on the issues that are at the forefront of current news reports. The Mortgage Market The difficulties facing the mortgage market are primarily related to “sub-prime” loans, and they are the most severe in a relatively few states. More specifically, sub-prime Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs) are at the heart of the problem. It should also be noted that not all sub-prime loans were made to borrowers with poor credit. In our resort area, a substantial number of well-qualified applicants voluntarily chose sub-prime over traditional loans for a variety of reasons, including ease of underwriting. • A little over 13 percent of all mortgages are classified as sub-prime by the Mortgage Bankers Association. About 11 percen...

Great Schools Update One of the challenges of maintaining a quality website and a healthy real estate business is to do both at the same time. Because of this, our website sometimes becomes very dated. The latest area of our website to come to my attention is the section about our local schools which is woefully out of date. With several new schools added in the last couple of years alone and more under construction it's time for an update. Gatlinburg Pittman, known for many years for its academic excellence, has again been recognized by a national review. This time, GP has been named in the top 8% of public schools nationally by the US New and World Report magazine organization. Their report evaluated nearly 19,000 schools from all of the United States on three basic criteria using data from the 2005-2006 school year. The three areas reviewed were: Student academic performance in reading and math compared to other state schools. Performance of the least advantaged students compare...

Great Schools Update One of the challenges of maintaining a quality website and a healthy real estate business is to do both at the same time. Because of this, our website sometimes becomes very dated. The latest area of our website to come to my attention is the section about our local schools which is woefully out of date. With several new schools added in the last couple of years alone and more under construction it's time for an update. Gatlinburg Pittman, known for many years for its academic excellence, has again been recognized by a national review. This time, GP has been named in the top 8% of public schools nationally by the US New and World Report magazine organization. Their report evaluated nearly 19,000 schools from all of the United States on three basic criteria using data from the 2005-2006 school year. The three areas reviewed were: Student academic performance in reading and math compared to other state schools. Performance of the least advantaged students compare...