Gatlinburg Real Estate Blog

March residential sales as reported by our Great Smoky Mountain Association of Realtors was a good month, the best since 2007 if only you don't count the extremely strong performance we saw just last year. 164 home sales by Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge, Sevierville, Kodak, Seymour, and Cosby agents sounds  really good until you compare it with 2012's extremely strong tally of 215. That means that once again, and for the third month in a row, our area's residential sales failed to meet the great numbers posted in 2012. This time we are sharply off unlike January and February's minor misses. Not that March 2013's total sales were that bad, just that 2012's were that good. Here is an updated table with the numbers:

March residential sales as reported by our Great Smoky Mountain Association of Realtors was a good month, the best since 2007 if only you don't count the extremely strong performance we saw just last year. 164 home sales by Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge, Sevierville, Kodak, Seymour, and Cosby agents sounds  really good until you compare it with 2012's extremely strong tally of 215. That means that once again, and for the third month in a row, our area's residential sales failed to meet the great numbers posted in 2012. This time we are sharply off unlike January and February's minor misses. Not that March 2013's total sales were that bad, just that 2012's were that good. Here is an updated table with the numbers:

March 2011 Gatlinburg area real estate sales were something of a disappointment although there will certainly be more sales recorded in the next week to ten days.  While last year's March sales tallied 144 units (thanks in no small part to the first time home buyer tax credit), this year's total (so far) as reported by our Great Smoky Mountain Association of Realtors MLS is only 109.  While that is the best number reported in 2011, the real news is that we are not as much above the previous months as is typical.  Again, it is important to remember that March sales haven't all been reported yet and I suspect that the final number will be more like 125, this still isn't a great showing.  Not since 2008, which was the very worst year for Sevier County residential property sales in MANY years, has the March total been so little better than the always slow January and February values.  To be sure, things are picking up and April looks like it may be a much ...

March 2011 Gatlinburg area real estate sales were something of a disappointment although there will certainly be more sales recorded in the next week to ten days.  While last year's March sales tallied 144 units (thanks in no small part to the first time home buyer tax credit), this year's total (so far) as reported by our Great Smoky Mountain Association of Realtors MLS is only 109.  While that is the best number reported in 2011, the real news is that we are not as much above the previous months as is typical.  Again, it is important to remember that March sales haven't all been reported yet and I suspect that the final number will be more like 125, this still isn't a great showing.  Not since 2008, which was the very worst year for Sevier County residential property sales in MANY years, has the March total been so little better than the always slow January and February values.  To be sure, things are picking up and April looks like it may be a much ...

Even though I have been in the Gatlinburg area real estate business for the past 15 years and the investment management field for the previous 8, I have never been exactly certain of what causes a declining market to turn around and go back up.  Sure, it requires there to be more buyers than there are sellers and you have to have a change in the market's psychology but what causes this to occur?  My question is not at all an idle one, as it has everything to do with when is the best time to purchase Smoky Mountain real estate here in our Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge/Sevierville area.  Because falling prices cause more "underwater" homeowners to consider walking away from their mortgage, forcing banks to place more properties on the market at giveaway prices, a vicious cycle is formed which leads to yet lower prices and the cycle continues.  With the experience that we have gained during "the current unpleasantries" (the same term the South used to describe the Americ...

Even though I have been in the Gatlinburg area real estate business for the past 15 years and the investment management field for the previous 8, I have never been exactly certain of what causes a declining market to turn around and go back up.  Sure, it requires there to be more buyers than there are sellers and you have to have a change in the market's psychology but what causes this to occur?  My question is not at all an idle one, as it has everything to do with when is the best time to purchase Smoky Mountain real estate here in our Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge/Sevierville area.  Because falling prices cause more "underwater" homeowners to consider walking away from their mortgage, forcing banks to place more properties on the market at giveaway prices, a vicious cycle is formed which leads to yet lower prices and the cycle continues.  With the experience that we have gained during "the current unpleasantries" (the same term the South used to describe the Americ...

January sales in our Gatlinburg area real estate market are almost always slow, often the slowest of the year in fact.  Because our area (like many second home markets nationally) has been riding a general uptrend in sales volumes, I had hoped that our Great Smoky Mountain Association of Realtors might have sold a total of around 110 homes during January, 2011.  Instead, the number as of today is only 99.  While this is still ahead of last year, it doesn't help our upward trend line much.  With a warning that anyone can draw lines based on historical data, here is the chart based on the latest numbers obtained today from the Great Smoky Mountain Association of Realtors MLS database:

January sales in our Gatlinburg area real estate market are almost always slow, often the slowest of the year in fact.  Because our area (like many second home markets nationally) has been riding a general uptrend in sales volumes, I had hoped that our Great Smoky Mountain Association of Realtors might have sold a total of around 110 homes during January, 2011.  Instead, the number as of today is only 99.  While this is still ahead of last year, it doesn't help our upward trend line much.  With a warning that anyone can draw lines based on historical data, here is the chart based on the latest numbers obtained today from the Great Smoky Mountain Association of Realtors MLS database:

August has ended and the early results indicate that we will again fail to reach last year's totals.  Though we will likely not finish as far below August 2009's tally as we did in July, it appears that Smoky Mountain residential sales will again fall short of last year's total.  The early total for the month's Gatlinburg area residential sales is 114 but we will certainly see several more August sales posted and won't have a final number for ten days to as long as two weeks.  The final number will likely be between 125 and 130 but would have to build all the way to 137 to surpass last year's total and that just isn't likely. With difficult comparisons for the remaining months of the year I suspect that we will fail to beat 2009's numbers for the balance of the year.  I am however quite certain that 2010's total sales will surpass those of 2009 because of the large lead we built during the first half of the year.  Here is the preliminary chart of re...

August has ended and the early results indicate that we will again fail to reach last year's totals.  Though we will likely not finish as far below August 2009's tally as we did in July, it appears that Smoky Mountain residential sales will again fall short of last year's total.  The early total for the month's Gatlinburg area residential sales is 114 but we will certainly see several more August sales posted and won't have a final number for ten days to as long as two weeks.  The final number will likely be between 125 and 130 but would have to build all the way to 137 to surpass last year's total and that just isn't likely. With difficult comparisons for the remaining months of the year I suspect that we will fail to beat 2009's numbers for the balance of the year.  I am however quite certain that 2010's total sales will surpass those of 2009 because of the large lead we built during the first half of the year.  Here is the preliminary chart of ...

When was the last time that you saw a gain of 61% NOT being accepted as totally good news? That is however exactly the situation we have when analyzing the preliminary Gatlinburg area residential real estate sales results for November 2009 as reported by our Great Smoky Mountain Association of Realtors. The reason why is simple - We are comparing to an EXTREMELY weak period a year ago. In fact, November 2008 was THE low point for residential sales in our Gatlinburg area real estate market going back MANY years with a total of only 67 total units sold. By comparison, the 108 sales reported for November 2009 is way up but nowhere near recent month's totals. To be sure, November is usually a pretty soft month and we will no doubt have additional sales reported over the next couple of weeks. October 2009 unit sales finished at a very respectable 143 but my guess is that November 2009 will likely finish at only around 120-125. This is an okay number but still makes November 2009 one o...

When was the last time that you saw a gain of 61% NOT being accepted as totally good news? That is however exactly the situation we have when analyzing the preliminary Gatlinburg area residential real estate sales results for November 2009 as reported by our Great Smoky Mountain Association of Realtors. The reason why is simple - We are comparing to an EXTREMELY weak period a year ago. In fact, November 2008 was THE low point for residential sales in our Gatlinburg area real estate market going back MANY years with a total of only 67 total units sold. By comparison, the 108 sales reported for November 2009 is way up but nowhere near recent month's totals. To be sure, November is usually a pretty soft month and we will no doubt have additional sales reported over the next couple of weeks. October 2009 unit sales finished at a very respectable 143 but my guess is that November 2009 will likely finish at only around 120-125. This is an okay number but still makes November 2009 one o...

Although our Gatlinburg area real estate market is improving, there are still certain sectors of the market that are absolutely miserable. Large residences and condos have some of the worst stats according to the Great Smoky Mountain Association of Realtors MLS database. There have only been 80 condo sales in the last 12 months but there are 399 units currently listed for sale. This calculates to a 4.9875 YEAR supply of unsold condos based on the pace of sales during the last year. In case this weren't tough enough, there are new condominium developments coming on line. Additionally, there are also a good number of foreclosures coming onto the market (I myself have two new condo foreclosure units that will be priced within the next 30 days or so). Here is my analysis of our Smoky Mountain real estate market by segments: To get a clearer copy (if you really want to see it??) of this table please click here . If you are attempting to sell real estate in Sevier County it is a challe...

Although our Gatlinburg area real estate market is improving, there are still certain sectors of the market that are absolutely miserable. Large residences and condos have some of the worst stats according to the Great Smoky Mountain Association of Realtors MLS database. There have only been 80 condo sales in the last 12 months but there are 399 units currently listed for sale. This calculates to a 4.9875 YEAR supply of unsold condos based on the pace of sales during the last year. In case this weren't tough enough, there are new condominium developments coming on line. Additionally, there are also a good number of foreclosures coming onto the market (I myself have two new condo foreclosure units that will be priced within the next 30 days or so). Here is my analysis of our Smoky Mountain real estate market by segments: To get a clearer copy (if you really want to see it??) of this table please click here . If you are attempting to sell real estate in Sevier County it is a challe...

While we have seen a moderate increase in sales recently our Gatlinburg area real estate market is still decidedly slanted in favor of buyers, not the sellers. I have begun describing our market by comparing it to a southern community grocery store when a rare winter storm is forecast. Because we don't get much snow here in the valleys of the East Tennessee Smokies when a snow storm is imminent we jump into a sort of crisis mode. At the weather forecast's first mention of snow or ice, grocery stores go into high gear as almost everyone heads out to stock up on staples such as bread, milk, etc. so that they won't risk going without. Keep in mind that snows here in Sevier County rarely linger for more than a day or two before they melt but that doesn't matter. Even with every employee working and every cash register lane open the lines quickly form. I have seen my local Food City store here in Sevierville have 12 lanes open each lane 8 or more people deep. Everyon...

While we have seen a moderate increase in sales recently our Gatlinburg area real estate market is still decidedly slanted in favor of buyers, not the sellers. I have begun describing our market by comparing it to a southern community grocery store when a rare winter storm is forecast. Because we don't get much snow here in the valleys of the East Tennessee Smokies when a snow storm is imminent we jump into a sort of crisis mode. At the weather forecast's first mention of snow or ice, grocery stores go into high gear as almost everyone heads out to stock up on staples such as bread, milk, etc. so that they won't risk going without. Keep in mind that snows here in Sevier County rarely linger for more than a day or two before they melt but that doesn't matter. Even with every employee working and every cash register lane open the lines quickly form. I have seen my local Food City store here in Sevierville have 12 lanes open each lane 8 or more people deep. Everyon...

For the life of me I don't understand why it takes so long for Smoky Mountain real estate agents to post their sales into our local MLS. It isn't that hard, doesn't take long to do, and we all use the stats to analyze the various aspects of our market and look for trends and opportunities. Knowledgeable real estate agents use these figures to better assist our clients and of course timely information is always better than incomplete or late data. Regardless of how much it irritates me or how simple the task should be, it isn't going to change. To get a really complete picture of our Gatlinburg area real estate market you just have to wait for a couple of weeks for all of the dust to settle. Sadly, it isn't over even then as I had to slightly revise my reported sales totals for both July and August as well as September to totally match the latest stats as reported by our Great Smoky Mountains Association of Realtors. With that long preamble, here is the latest marke...

For the life of me I don't understand why it takes so long for Smoky Mountain real estate agents to post their sales into our local MLS. It isn't that hard, doesn't take long to do, and we all use the stats to analyze the various aspects of our market and look for trends and opportunities. Knowledgeable real estate agents use these figures to better assist our clients and of course timely information is always better than incomplete or late data. Regardless of how much it irritates me or how simple the task should be, it isn't going to change. To get a really complete picture of our Gatlinburg area real estate market you just have to wait for a couple of weeks for all of the dust to settle. Sadly, it isn't over even then as I had to slightly revise my reported sales totals for both July and August as well as September to totally match the latest stats as reported by our Great Smoky Mountains Association of Realtors. With that long preamble, here is the latest marke...

Those of us who have been in Sevier County a long time (nearly 15 years in our case) have seen lots of very good periods for Gatlinburg area real estate. In fact, until 2007 even people who have lived here as many as 50 years had never seen a real down year. For this reason, a lot of would-be sellers are suffering from a little disbelief and some are actually in a pure state of denial. I regularly speak with property owners who are dismayed that the property they bought in 2005 isn't worth (nearly 5 years later) what they paid for it. To be sure, this isn't the case for all types of real estate and some categories are doing much better than others. Small permanent residences (not cabins) are holding their own pretty well with values about equal to the peak prices of 2006. Larger (2500+ square foot) rental cabins have been particularly hard hit and are sharply lower than they were during the price bubble which peaked in late 2006. Unfortunately our Great Smoky Mountain As...

Those of us who have been in Sevier County a long time (nearly 15 years in our case) have seen lots of very good periods for Gatlinburg area real estate. In fact, until 2007 even people who have lived here as many as 50 years had never seen a real down year. For this reason, a lot of would-be sellers are suffering from a little disbelief and some are actually in a pure state of denial. I regularly speak with property owners who are dismayed that the property they bought in 2005 isn't worth (nearly 5 years later) what they paid for it. To be sure, this isn't the case for all types of real estate and some categories are doing much better than others. Small permanent residences (not cabins) are holding their own pretty well with values about equal to the peak prices of 2006. Larger (2500+ square foot) rental cabins have been particularly hard hit and are sharply lower than they were during the price bubble which peaked in late 2006. Unfortunately our Great Smoky Mountain As...