Never Challenge Worse!

I believe it was the comedian Bill Cosby that first said "Never challenge worse" as in, some situation can't get any worse. I have borrowed the phrase and use it occasionally to remind myself that things aren't as bad as they could be - they could always get worse. Although the final numbers will likely be slightly better as some end of the month sales may still be unreported, in March, the pace of residential sales in our East Tennessee real estate market definitely got worse:

While the drop sequentially from February to March was only 2 units the more important ratio is when this March is compared with March of 2007 and 2006. As you can see by the table above, our residential market's performance in March of 2008 is nothing like previous year's March sales and this is more than a little troubling. Of the 106 residential units sold, only 66 were Sevier County properties with the balance being from surrounding areas including Knox, Blount, Jefferson, and Cocke counties. March historically is a great month when compared with other months of the year. In fact, during 2006 & 2007, March was the BEST month of the year - God forbid that should be the case this year!

Equally troubling is the fact that many (at least 12) of the sales recorded during March 2008 were foreclosure properties and they were generally sold at distressed prices. This confirms my advice to potential sellers during the past year: "Unless you just have to sell you might want to wait out the market and hope for a better environment in the future".

I don't for a minute believe that people will stop vacationing in Sevier County, retiring in the Smokies, or wanting to own a vacation home here in the mountains of East Tennessee. Residential real estate in the Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge, and Sevierville area will eventually pick up and the question is certainly when, not if. I really think it can't get much worse and I don't believe I just said that...

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